Innovation Fair Share Index
The same fair share standard applied to new items only: facing share against market share, adjusted for the availability and compliance each new item actually received. Read it next to the core set to see the whole brand.
New items in the set
Across 8 brands in scope
Under-spaced opportunity
Annual sales sitting behind new items that earn more space
Sell-through, adjusted
46% before adjusting for the availability these items got
Distribution vs demand
New items held back by the shelf, against those the shopper is passing by
Brand space against demand, new items
Facing share on the horizontal, market share on the vertical.
The dashed line is parity — market share equal to facing share. Points above the line pull more demand than the space they hold, so they are under-spaced. Points below the line hold more space than the demand behind them.
What the new items show
- 6 new items are being judged on doors they never gotCelsius Live Fit Berry 12oz reads 44% sell-through, but 69% once you only count the stores that actually had it on shelf. Across the innovation set the availability adjustment is worth 11 points — the item is fine, the distribution is not.
- Pure Life Sparkling Lime 500ml is a genuine demand problem33% availability-adjusted sell-through after 143 days, against Pure Life 700ml at 51% as the comparable. The doors were there; the shopper was not. 7 items read this way in the innovation set.
- Celsius Live Fit Berry 12oz has earned more spaceIndex 1.89 on 4.7% of the facings against 8.9% of the market, +$3.3M a year. New items rarely hold their launch facings this well.
Brands, ranked by their new-item space
Facing share Market shareCelsius2 new items · Energy | 7.0% | 13.7% | 1.96Under-spaced | 43% raw · 67% adjusted | +$5.4M | |||
Red Bull2 new items · Energy | 8.2% | 12.7% | 1.55Under-spaced | 54% raw · 69% adjusted | +$3.9M | |||
Monster2 new items · Energy | 13.9% | 18.2% | 1.31Under-spaced | 65% raw · 70% adjusted | +$4.3M | |||
Coca-Cola3 new items · CSD, Water, Dairy | 18.6% | 20.4% | 1.10At fair share | 52% raw · 63% adjusted | +$1.2M | |||
Keurig Dr Pepper2 new items · Tea & Juice, CSD | 9.4% | 9.0% | 0.96At fair share | 44% raw · 53% adjusted | -$0.4M | |||
PepsiCo2 new items · Sports Drink, CSD | 13.9% | 10.7% | 0.77Over-spaced | 44% raw · 49% adjusted | -$2.4M | |||
BodyArmor1 new item · Sports Drink | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.41Over-spaced | 29% raw · 36% adjusted | -$2.2M | |||
Nestlé Waters2 new items · Water | 11.7% | 4.8% | 0.41Over-spaced | 29% raw · 39% adjusted | -$4.8M |
Innovation Fair Share Index is market share divided by facing share for new items only, adjusted for the availability and compliance each item received. Above 1.00 the new item is under-spaced for its demand; below 1.00 it holds more space than it earns. A low sell-through with a high adjusted rate is a distribution problem, not a demand problem — the item never got its facings. Run this next to the Fair Share Index, which covers the core set.
How concentrated the market sales are
New items in full color against the core set in gray, ranked by share of market sales.
17 of 40 SKUs carry 80% of market sales
22 of 40 SKUs carry 90%
Bars are each SKU's share of market sales, ranked largest first. The line is the running total — where it crosses 80% and 90% is how concentrated the portfolio really is.